Democritus (430-380 BC) said "I would rather discover one causal relation than be King of
Persia." Was he just being an eccentric philosopher, devoted to
knowledge for its own sake? Or did he realize that an understanding of
causal relations has myriad possible applications, and such a discovery
could make him even more powerful than the most powerful person on Earth
at the time? ...I think it was a little of both.
David Hume (1711-1776) distinguished between analytic claims (the product of
thoughts) and empirical claims (matters of fact), classifying causal
claims as empirical rather than analytic. He identified the source of
all empirical claims with human experience, namely, sensory input.
Albert Einstein (1879-1955) said "Development of Western science is based on
two great achievements: The invention of the formal logical system (in
Euclidean geometry) by the Greek philosophers, and the discovery of the
possibility to find out causal relationships by systemic experiment
(during the Renaissance)."
Judea Pearl (1936- ) said "I am convinced that the entire story of causality
unfolds from just three basic principles: (1) causation encodes behavior
under interventions, (2) interventions are surgeries on mechanisms, and
(3) mechanisms are stable functional relationships." In assessing our
current position in relation to Einstein's quote, Pearl states that
while the observational component of science has benefited from the
power of formal methods, the design of new experiments is still managed
by the unaided human intellect. But, when experimental science enjoys
the benefit of formal mathematics along with its observational
component, another scientific revolution will occur that will be equal
in impact to the one that took place during the Renaissance. And AI will
be the major player in this revolution.
When considering counterfactuals and digital models (essentially two sides of the same
coin), the greatest agency to effect change (according to one's goals
and abilities) will lay with whomever has a better understanding of
mechanisms, causal relationships, and possible interventions. This is
the takeaway message from Judea Pearl, and ties in considerably with
Pedro Domingos and David Brin as well.
What I really believe, and what I am confident Democritus did as well, is that aside from the erudite novelty and numerous
applications of a causal understanding, the greatest benefit of all is that it can bring the beauty and wonder of the world around us into clearer focus. And that is likely what motivated him most of all.
Source: Reasoning with Cause and Effect, by Judea Pearl
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