Imagining a New Future

• What are the biggest challenges for Fairbanks/Alaska in the next 20 years?

Making rapid and sustained progress in all sectors toward net zero GHG emissions,^[1] quickly followed by negative GHG emissions.^[2],[3],[4] is one of the biggest challenges our state will face in the next 20 years. The changes occurring to our marine, terrestrial, and coastal environments (this is where people live^[5]) will have increasingly disruptive consequences to economies and governments. Ocean acidity has increased 30 percent in less than 100 years.^[6] Addressing this will require that we lower our per capita energy use through conservation and efficiency while simultaneously raising our clean energy capacity, in addition to preserving and expanding natural carbon sinks. We need to address power plants, transportation, industry, heating, and agriculture as part of a holistic approach. This transition to a low-carbon society and a diversified, innovative, knowledge-based economy is an exciting opportunity. Developing renewable energy sources, modernizing infrastructure, and creating new businesses and new jobs is a part of the overall effort to reduce regional and state dependence on declining oil revenue.^[7],[8],[9]

• What do you imagine an economically and environmentally sustainable Fairbanks/Alaska to look like?
• What do you see as “Old Alaska” and what do you see as “New Alaska”?

A 100% Renewable Alaska scenario is by no means inevitable - it is entirely contingent upon our ability to confront sunk costs, behavioral inertia, and entrenched interests^[10] in our declining oil economy.^[11],[12]

All sectors of the economy could utilize renewable energy resources^[13] and eliminate dependence on fossil energy sources.^[14] Technological and behavioral choices are capable of making dramatic contributions toward increased energy conservation.^[15] Industry could further improve the efficiency of its operations and the durability and quality of its products. Increased recycling and reduced waste could be stimulated by accounting for the full lifecycle cost of all products. Low cost solar PV could become nearly ubiquitous and seamlessly incorporated into the built environment.^[16] Transportation, whether SAEVs (shared autonomous electric vehicles),^[17],[18] commuter and high speed rail, etc. will likely be fully electric,^[19] with the possible exception of liquid solar fuels^[20],[21] for aviation. All buildings could be net zero^[22] and comply with some version of a performance-based thermal code.
Agriculture could be optimized for food security, crop diversity, and regenerating soil for fertility and carbon sequestration by applying the research of agroecology and related fields. This could benefit the development of local and regional food hubs.^[23] Increased automation may eliminate many current jobs,^[24] which could in turn lead to a reduced work week, work sharing, and a more equitable distribution of productivity gains.^[25] It may also lead to expanding job opportunities in emerging fields. Improvements in medical science and technology will likely continue, and access to health care and education could rise correspondingly.

• What would you like Fairbanks/Alaska to look like in 20 years?
• What specific things need to be built?

By 2036 Fairbanks will have long had a single operator^[26] for the interconnected Railbelt transmission network that will be able to quickly coordinate and dispatch Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)^[27] over a large geography, thereby reducing their variability on the grid. These DERs will comprise the majority of all electric generation, including expanded wind (Alaska has excellent resources) and solar PV (Alaska is comparable to Germany), community wind farms and solar farms, and other renewable energy sources where environmentally appropriate,^[28],[29] and they will be linked with small scale HVDC transmission to our local smart electric grid. Increasingly sophisticated computing power, sensors, and software, aka “Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems” (DERMS), will coordinate these DERs^[30].

By 2036 we will have passed the "50 by 2025" goal set in HB 306, leading to new more ambitious targets, and plans for how to reach them.^[31] Phase 2 of the Fire Island wind farm will be completed, Eva Creek and Delta Wind will be expanded, and new locations developed.^[32] If the 20-fold increase in wind power generation since 2007 holds steady we will have dramatically increased our ability to tap this resource.^[33] Renewable energy projects near population centers will continue to expand, tidal and wave energy will be commercially viable, competing in some markets with already low cost solar PV and wind plus flexible demand and storage^[34] of all kinds^[35] (electric, thermal,^[36] and seasonal). Free site evaluations, package deals, low financing options, and federal tax credits will continue to make it easy for homeowners to "go solar." A statewide energy audit will enable us to dramatically improve energy efficiency in existing buildings and winter air quality in Fairbanks and North Pole. District heating systems using renewable energy to power heat pumps^[37] and/or electric boilers^[38] paired with seasonal thermal energy storage, similar to systems currently in use at Drake Landing Solar Community in Alberta,^[39] will increase.

In laying out a roadmap for clean infrastructure, the research conducted by people such as Bill Powers (BASE 2020), Mark Jacobson (Stanford),^[40] Richard Heinberg (Our Renewable Future),^[41] Sadhu Johnston^[42] (Vancouver's Renewable City Strategy),^[43] Christian Breyer (Finland), Erin Whitney (ACEP solar PV research),^[44] Marc Mueller-Stoffels (Scenarios-based energy planning), and others^[45],[46] will be critical. But the technology is already available to deploy what we need today.

BUILDING THE NEW

• How do we incorporate justice, reconciliation, and equity in our transition/why is this important?
• How do we center our economies locally?

Justice must inform all considerations, and change doesn't occur without disruption.^[47] All efforts to mitigate climate change should be designed to increase quality of life, compensate where losses occur, and invest gains within the community. A lost oil industry job or contract must be compensated with training and opportunities in other fields. According to research published 3/24/2016 in "Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016,"^[48] the amount of money committed to renewables excluding large hydro-electric projects rose to $285.9 billion, more than double that of new coal and gas generation. Transitioning to a clean energy economy could provide Alaska with an entirely new sector providing more high quality jobs than the current oil and gas based economy. Support among labor groups for a new renewables economy is growing fast. Changes in the global market will require Alaskans re-evaluate their choices for their future. Finding our role in a circular global economy will be a challenge, but locally sourced skills and materials should be preferred whenever possible.

• How do we create a popular movement for change in Fairbanks/Alaska?

“The birthright of all living things is health,” wrote organic farming pioneer Sir Albert Howard.^[49] By returning to the common interest we all have in maintaining a healthy environment, the foundation for a prosperous and sustainable society, we can engage everyone. By using blunt science based messaging on the threat of climate change we can educate.^[50] By highlighting that this is a problem we can solve we can encourage action. By identifying the benefits of sustainability and the opportunities it provides for improving our quality of life - economic and food security, new opportunities in business and research, etc. we can engage people in supporting policy solutions.

• Why is it necessary for Alaska to move away from fossil fuels?
• Who needs to get involved and why?

The rapidity of climate change coupled with the environmental pressure exerted by our current global population represents a very real existential threat, one that we have never encountered before.^[51],[52] We must all be a part of the solution. The common threat of climate change has resulted in the formation of synergistic groups. In Alaska, the Native community is on the cutting edge of climate change monitoring (through numerous community monitoring collaborations), mitigation, and, of course, relocation efforts for communities threatened by erosion and flooding. The fishing industry is jeopardized by ocean acidification and hydrologic cycle disruptions. In just one example of collaboration, state and federal scientists, agencies, tribes, conservation, fishing and aquaculture groups formed the Alaska Ocean Acidification Network in order to share their findings and connect with concerned coastal residents.^[53] Those of us who are clearly threatened can share how we are impacted. Those of us who already understand the need for action can increase our public visibility and advocacy to address climate change. We need legislators and government agencies who will advance polices based on the evidence in local, state, and national levels of government. We need all legislators and candidates seeking public office to acknowledge the well understood science of climate change, the impacts we are currently experiencing, and those we can expect in the future.

• What needs to change structurally?

Planetary boundaries define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth system.^[54] These boundaries must be acknowledged in all policy and investment decisions, and such decisions must be approached holistically, across all sectors. Doing so is difficult, but by incorporating the social and environmental cost of carbon into the economy with policies like carbon fee and dividend,^[55] it can be virtually automatic.^[56] The lack of this carbon pricing has been called by Lord Stern the "biggest market failure."^[57] Internalizing that cost could stimulate technological changes that create a shift in consumer behaviors to less material throughput and more information and services.

We can adopt or expand renewable portfolio standards, clean energy funds, feed-in tariffs, net metering, and power purchase agreements^[58] for renewable resources. We can require oil and coal industries operating in Alaska to comply with the Clean Power Plan. Today, the Renewable Energy Grant Fund and Emerging Energy Technology Fund both need full state support and the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet needs to re-establish its role in the preparation and implementation of an Alaska climate change strategy.^[59]

• What's already happening in Fairbanks/Alaska that we need to support?

We have a growing climate movement that has benefited from the coordination of groups across the state. We are sharing information and shaping policy. There is an Alaska Climate Caucus, several chapters of Citizen's Climate Lobby, numerous grassroots environmental organizations,^[60] renewable energy organizations, and world class research conducted at the Alaska Center for Energy and Power and the Cold Climate Housing Research Center. Research institutes, university departments, and scientists in Alaska are contributing to the global understanding of climate change. There are local businesses in the renewable energy industry, bike sharing, community-supported agriculture, and farmer's markets, etc. Many cities, including Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau have begun to take action and create individualized plans to address climate change. In 2007 a resolution was passed in Fairbanks committing to a process of identifying risks and opportunities related to climate change and developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a result, the Interior Issues Council's task force on climate change released a 77-page final report on 1/10/2010 that contains lots of ideas for local action.

• What are Alaskan values and how do we act on them?
• What do you think we will gain from a transition?

As a nation, we address issues of national security, economic security, and food security. People want to live free from the threat of war, poverty, and malnutrition. Climate change is a security issue; as a threat multiplier^[61] it makes all these more likely. We can prevent the breaching of planetary boundaries. We can begin to reverse the dangerous trends the IPCC and numerous other organizations are warning us will occur if we do not take action. A transition to an economically and environmentally sustainable Fairbanks and Alaska will provide a secure future for ourselves, our community, and future generations. It means lower mortality rates as a result of a variety of pollution related illnesses, and the preservation of countless species in healthy marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

YOU

• Why do you personally feel a need to work toward transition?

There is a clear disjunction between what we need to do (maintain the conditions for life) and what we actually are doing on Earth (radically altering the ecosphere). The results of inaction to address this are clear and consequential. If economic inequality^[62] is important, then how much more so life itself? We are redrawing the face of the planet. Given what we know, we must respond accordingly, and we must respond today. There are no good reasons why our energy can’t be clean.

• Tell us a story about a time when you realized the need for change in Alaska’s course in history

In September 2014 the power of collective action and the urgency^[63] of climate change merged. The People's Climate March drew many people into the climate movement who may have formerly only watched from the sidelines. No longer merely an environmental concern, it became linked to issues of social justice - about our future as a society and the values we hold as people, including maintaining the integrity our global community. (How many species are expendable?) The light of climate science illuminated this threat more clearly to me than anything else. People across the country^[64] and the world simultaneously called for action and marched through their city streets. It was the largest demonstration in New York City since the 1982 anti-nuclear protest. The combination of engaged collective action and the understanding that it is entirely preventable continues to give me hope.

ALASKA’S GLOBAL ROLE

• What is Fairbanks/Alaska’s role in fighting climate change?

Alaska has a relatively low population density, and the boreal forest, temperate rainforest, tundra, and ocean ecosystems are important carbon sinks. Maintaining the health of these ecosystems, even as we see them already changing under the effects of a warming climate, will continue to be important in restoring the global carbon balance.^[65] Alaska is also leading in the development of clean energy technology for northern latitudes, and we can maintain our leadership well into the future.

• How can Fairbanks/Alaska be an example and inspiration for the rest of the world?

We are already an inspiration. Kodiak is now 99.7 percent renewably powered by wind and hydro, and many other isolated microgrids in Alaska have very high percentages as well. If we continue to expand renewables, follow the example of several neighbors (Finland, Ontario,^[66] Vancouver, etc.),^[67] and draft and/or renew our own climate change action plans and renewable city strategies, we will continue to lead on an issue that affects our state more than any other.

Eric Schaetzle is a climate activist in Fairbanks, AK
Questions provided by Kengo Nagaoka and Tristan Glowa, community organizing fellows with the Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition

References:

[1] Geden, Oliver. (04 Apr 2016) An actionable climate target. Nature Geoscience 9, 340–342.
[2] Magill, Bobby. (08 Aug 2016) Michigan Scientists See Urgency for Negative Emissions. Climate Central.
[3] Fountain, Henry (09 Jun 2016) Iceland Carbon Dioxide Storage Project Locks Away Gas, and Fast. New York Times.
[4] Carbon Brief Staff. (11 Apr 2016) Explainer: 10 ways ‘negative emissions’ could slow climate change. Carbon Brief.
[5] Oliver, Shady Grove (08 Jul 2016) Mapping project preps Barrow for coastal change. The Arctic Sounder.
[6] Boyer, Peter. (09 May 2016) Talking Point: Ocean acidity rising at the most rapid rate in 300 million years. The Mercury.
[7] Knapp, Gunnar. (15 Feb 2016) Complicated Alaska budget crisis explained in simple terms. Alaska Dispatch News.
[8] Moderow, Andy. (31 Jul 2016) Think forward about natural resources. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
[9] Walker, Bill. (04 Jun 2016) Alaskans deserve a permanent solution to fiscal volatility. Alaska Dispatch News.
[10] Crane, David. (12 Jan 2016) If I was right, why was I fired? GreenBiz.
[11] Editorial. (29 Jul 2016) The real world of a sunken oil market. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
[12] Jenkins, Elizabeth. (14 Jul 2016) Oil on exhibit: What Alaska’s past says about its future. Alaska's Energy Desk.
[13] Roberts, David. (03 May 2016) Here's what it would take for the US to run on 100% renewable energy. Vox Energy & Environment.
[14] Beebe, Andrew. (10 Dec 2015) The Coming Electrification of Everything. Medium.
[15] Allen, Karen Lynn. (06 Apr 2016) An Energy Diet for a Healthy Planet. Resilience.org
[16] Roberts, David. (23 Jun 2016) Solar panels have gotten thinner than a human hair. Soon they’ll be everywhere. Vox Energy & Environment.
[17] Roberts, David (05 Jul 2016) How self-driving cars can make cities better. Vox Technology.
[18] Roberts, David. (28 Jul 2016) Shared vehicles could make our cities dramatically more livable. Vox Technology.
[19] Roberts, David. (25 Sep 2015) The transformative potential of self-driving electric cars. Vox Energy & Environment.
[20] Barnham, Keith. (21 Jul 2016) Goodbye gasoline: we can Get It From The Sun (GIFTS). The Ecologist.
[21] Roberts, David. (07 Jun 2016) Burning “liquid sunlight” instead of fossil fuels is getting closer to reality. Vox
Energy & Environment.
[22] Marsik, Tom (2013) Net Zero Energy Ready Home in Dillingham, Alaska. University of Alaska Fairbanks.
[23] Kenai Peninsula Food Hub
[24] Roberts, David. (03 Aug 2016) 1.8 million American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots. What then? Vox.
[25] Bregman, Rutger. (18 Apr 2016) The solution to (nearly) everything: working less. Guardian.
[26] Alaska, 28th Legislature (2013-2014). HB 340: RCA: Railbelt Electric Utility Report.
[27] Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose. (10 Aug 2016) Holy Grail of energy policy in sight as battery technology smashes the old order. The Telegraph.
[28] Blakers, Andrew  (26 Jun 2016) Wind and solar PV have won the race – it’s too late for other clean energy technologies. The Conversation.
[29] Hagenstein, Rand and Corinne Smith. (25 Jun 2016) Alaska has incredible potential for hydropower, when it's done right. Alaska Dispatch News.
[30] Gallucci, Maria. (01 Aug 2016) The New Green Grid: Utilities Deploy ‘Virtual Power Plants’. Yale Environment 360.
[31] Dehmer, Dagmar. (07 Jun 2016) German electricity transmission CEO: ‘80% renewables is no problem.' Der Tagesspiegel
[32] Harball, Elizabeth. (18 Aug 2016) Fire Island Wind sees expansion on the horizon. Alaska's Energy Desk.
Baird, Kevin. (02 Jul 2016) 1.8 MW wind farm to be built near Tok. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
[33] Roberts, David. (15 Jun 2016) Energy transitions are usually slow. Here’s why the clean energy transition might be faster. Vox.
[34] Hoag, Hannah. (26 Apr 2016) Getting Renewable Energy into Remote Communities. Arctic Deeply.
[35] Roberts, David. (28 Apr 2016) The train goes up, the train goes down: a simple new way to store energy. Vox.
[36] Jossi, Frank. (02 May 2016) Q&A: An energy storage solution may already be in your basement. Midwest Energy News.
[37] Cold Climate Housing Research Center. (02 Jun 2016) What you need to know about air source heat pumps. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
White, Rindi. (02 Aug 2016) The Growth of Renewable Energy in Alaska. Alaska Business Monthly.
[38] DeMarban, Alex. (15 Aug 2016) Alaska-built powerhouses boost green energy in villages. Alaska Dispatch News.
China Cleantech Update. (07 Apr 2016) First Wind-to-Heat Project to be Finished this year in Xinjiang. Azure International.
[39] Kruger, Monty (15 Feb 2016) Drake Landing: A ray of sunshine for solar thermal energy. CBC News.
[40] Brennan, Pat. (12 May 2016) Power play: Envisioning a wind, water and solar world. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
[41] Smith, Alex. (29 Jun 2016) For Better or For Worse. Radio Ecoshock.
[42] Roberts, David. (26 Jul 2016) Vancouver plans to go 100% renewable. I asked the city’s manager about the challenges it faces. Vox Energy & Environment.
[43] City of Vancouver. (Nov 2015) Renewable City Strategy.
[44] Frey, Max. (27 Jun 2016) Chasing the sun, a UAF researcher makes a journey back home. University of Alaska Fairbanks.
[45] Seitz, Robert. (01 Jan 2016) To meet renewable energy goals, Alaska and US need long-term storage plan. Alaska Dispatch News.
[46] Seitz, Robert. (26 Feb 2016) Alaska's energy systems still need a plan, no matter how they're powered. Alaska Dispatch News.
[47] Lutz Warren, Julianne (26 Jun 2016) Idle no more. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
[48] McCrone, Angus. (2016) Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016. UNEP.
[49] Howard, Sir Albert. (1945) Farming and Gardening for Health or Disease (The Soil and Health). Faber and Faber.
[50] Romm, Joe (12 Apr 2016) Here’s What Science Has To Say About Convincing People To Do Something About Climate Change. Think Progress.
[51] Wolpoff, Milford H. (2016) Global Warming: Once Again, A Most Serious Challenge To Our Species. Edge.
[52] Fong, Joss and Estelle Caswell. (22 Apr 2016) Why climate change is so important, in one chart. Vox.
[53] Welch, Laine. (13 Aug 2016) Monitoring the progress of ocean acidification. Alaska Dispatch News.
[54] Rockström, J; Steffen, WL; Noone, K; Persson, Å; Chapin III, FS; Lambin, EF; Lenton, TM; Scheffer, M; et al. Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32.
[55] Shalev, Asaf. (8 Sept 2015) Rural Alaskans could see boost from carbon cutting program, study says. Alaska Dispatch News.
[56] Halstead, Ted. (May 2016) Unlocking the Climate Puzzle. Climate Leadership Council.
[57] Gummer, John. (04 Nov 2015) Why conservatives should set a price on carbon pollution. The Washington Times.
[58] Spiegel, Jan Ellen. (08 Aug 2016) In Corporate March to Clean Energy, Utilities Not Required. InsideClimate News.
[59] Alaska, State. (27 Jan 2009) Alaska’s Climate Change Strategy: Addressing Impacts in Alaska, Executive Summary. Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet.
[60] Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition.
[61] Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Jonathan Donges, Reik Donnera, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. (2016) Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
[62] Rogers, Paul. (12 Aug 2016) Climate Science: Revolution is here. Common Dreams.
[63] Mooney, Chris. (29 Jun 2016) The world has the right climate goals — but the wrong ambition levels to achieve them. The Washington Post.
[64] Morrow, Wes. (22 Sep 2014) Climate change march: Fairbanksans join global issue movement. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
[65] Figure 6.1 from the WG1 report of the 2013 IPCC 5AR. “The global carbon cycle”
[66] Ontario. (2016) Climate Change Action Plan. Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change.
[67] Institute for Sustainable Futures. (Mar 2016) 100% Renewable Energy for Australia. University of Technology Sydney.

An Alaskan roadmap to 100% Renewable Energy

Solar high rise, downtown Anchorage, Alaska

By Eric Schaetzle & Ceal Smith
Historically, when renewable energy becomes a cost competitive option people make the switch from fossil fuels. Today, many US cities, like Burlington, Aspen, and Juneau meet a significant percentage of their energy needs from hydropower, a technology that became cost effective long ago. Wind power improved later, allowing other cities, like Greensburg, KS, to tap into this rapidly growing market.[1] Today the most recent and rapid growth is in solar. The prediction is that it will meet an increasingly large percentage of energy demand in the future as entire cities and regions move toward renewable energy.[2],[3] The emergence of SolarCity and other big players in the renewable energy scene illustrate the tremendous growth opportunities for private industry. As improvements in renewable energy continue, improvements in building performance, weatherization, and energy conservation and efficiency compliment them.[4],[5],[6] The potential for Alaska to realize gains in these areas as well has been widely recognized.

Seven years ago, in January 2009, Gov. Palin asked Alaskans to focus on obtaining 50% of our electric generation from renewable sources by 2025,[7],[8] an announcement that accompanied the release of a new document from the Alaska Energy Authority titled "Alaska Energy: A first step toward energy independence."[9] Unfortunately, Alaska Energy didn't provide a road map for how to reach this goal. At the time, Alaska's "50 by 2025" goal was on the cutting edge; suggesting a higher target of 100% renewable energy would have been dismissed as not only impractical, but impossible to reach. Yet a few years earlier, in 2007, Kodiak Island, Alaska began a multi-phased, step by step approach that by 2014 culminated in their electric grid generating 99.7% of it's power from renewable energy sources.

Today, advancements in clean energy and integration technologies (known as “smart grid”) have spurred explosive growth in the number of cities, states, and countries planning and working toward 100% renewable energy goals.  Those of us watching from the sidelines have been forced to revise our beliefs about what is possible. It no longer takes a visionary to embrace such a goal, just a leader with enough common sense to see where the world is headed.

An expanding role

In 2015 the "Solutions Project," led by Mark Jacobson at Stanford, did in fact create a 100% renewable roadmap for Alaska. The plan identifies energy sources of 70% wind, 15% hydro, 7% geothermal, and 6% solar to enable a staged shift in all energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to renewable sources.[10] Jacobson's plan includes a 30% decrease in power demand gained by converting from combustion to electricity and end-use energy efficiency improvements. It also accounts for electricity and heat storage.[11] Since Alaska has a solar resource comparable to Germany (Fig. 1), currently the fifth largest producer of solar energy in the world,[12] Jacobson's proposed energy mix could be adjusted to include a higher ratio of solar. Erin Whitney at the Alaska Center for Energy and Power, for example, has noted that "solar is the most untapped resource in our state."[13] As prices for PV panels drop, solar energy generation has grown considerably across the state, from the Northwest Arctic Borough to Copper Valley.[14] In Fairbanks, for example, the Golden Valley Electric Association is exploring a community solar project.[15],[16]

Bay Area Smart Energy 2020, Bill Powers

There are other examples of what a more developed plan to move to 100% renewable energy might look like. San Diego energy expert Bill Powers developed one such plan for four heavily populated Bay Area Counties in California.  Bay Area Smart Energy 2020 (BASE)[17] uses proven low cost technologies to convert the electric grid to renewable sources through energy conservation and efficiency, demand response, and local, distributed renewable energy supplemented by a few strategically placed utility-scale renewable energy projects and community scale storage. Clearly, there are substantial differences between the climates of Alaska and California. We can't "copy and paste" the BASE 2020 plan for our state, but otherwise Powers' nuts and bolts approach is what we need in Alaska.

The litmus test for an Alaskan renewable energy plan will be its ability to deliver power under the most demanding conditions, such as an Alaskan winter, but other Arctic regions haven't found this to be an obstacle. As part of a "Neo Carbon Energy" project, Christian Breyer and associates from the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland, at a similar latitude as Alaska, created an economically viable 100% renewable energy plan that relies on a highly flexible system design and dramatic increases in wind and solar generation capacity.[18],[19],[20] Recently this same team completed renewable energy system modeling for Russia, and found it to be one of the most energy-competitive regions.[21]  Similarities between Finland and Russia and the climate and geography of Alaska are apparent.

Renewable Energy Atlas of Alaska

In fact, the Alaska Energy Authority found that Alaska has "some of the best renewable resources in the world" and collaborated with the Renewable Energy Alaska Project to create a "Renewable Energy Atlas of Alaska."[22] They identified four distinct geothermal resource regions suitable for large-scale geothermal power projects.  Alaska has over 90% of the nation's river current and tidal energy resources.  Western and coastal regions of the state have wind resources that are rated "excellent" and "outstanding."[23]

Geothermal and hydroelectric energy are “base load” -- that is they produce the minimum amount the electric grid has to have to operate at any given time.[24] Combined with wind, solar, energy storage, greater efficiency, improved high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology,[25] and demand response, Alaskans would have no problem getting through the harshest winters. Evidently, such was also the conclusion of the Finnish researchers for their country.

The obstacles to a 100% renewable energy plan are not the cold and dark of winter, but rather, policies that disincentivize renewable power generation[26],[27] and limit demand response. Thankfully, the Regulatory Commission of Alaska is looking to restructure the Railbelt grid with the creation of an Independent System Operator that would dispatch energy more efficiently and set a universal transmission tariff.[28],[29],[30],[31]

Today the energy sector is driven more by improvements in technology and shrinking costs than improvements in resource extraction. Consequently, economic growth is no longer dependent on fossil fuel production. The shift has only begun to ripple across the globe, though we are feeling its direct effects here in Alaska. If we remain bound to the older model of extraction, we will miss being part of the emerging economic development paradigm.  We don't have a roadmap to a 100% renewable future yet, but that's not for lack of reason, and it's becoming increasingly apparent it's not for lack of ability either.

Incentives for growth

The clear message of the Paris agreement is that the age of fossil fuels is drawing to a close. Policies that internalize the environmental and public health costs of carbon pollution, such as carbon pricing schemes and, in the US, the Clean Power Plan, will favor renewable energy and spur investment in and development of clean technology, promoting greater adoption and lowering costs.[32] It's important to take into account these current and future changes to tax and energy policy when considering what our future energy infrastructure should look like.

The research and technical experience in putting a renewable energy plan into practice could expand our growing role in the $20 billion global industry in next generation clean technology as other regions of the globe move in the same direction. Recognizing this potential for their own country, Iceland built a knowledge export economy around geothermal resources.[33] To date, 144 countries currently have renewable energy policy targets.[34]  With no sign of this trend slowing,[35] Iceland made a wise investment. 

Even without a mandatory goal or policy incentives, renewables are expanding in Alaska.[36] In 2014, we produced 28% of our electricity with water, wind, and other renewable energy sources.[37] Between 2007 and 2014 we saw a 20-fold increase in wind power generation.[38] Through the vision of its residents and collaboration with industry leaders, Kodiak residents saved millions in annual fuel costs and lowered ratepayer electric bills when they reached 99.7% renewable power generation. Residents are now beginning to switch from oil to electric heat pumps to heat their homes.[39],[40] In Kotzebue, wind power is already providing 20% of average electricity demand, saving the community $900,000 in 2014 alone.[41] There are many more examples besides these.

According to the Alaska Center for Energy and Power, more than 70 of Alaska’s 200 microgrids have integrated renewable power into the mix,[42] and there's plenty of room left to grow. In their recent Alaska Dispatch News commentary, Meera Kohler and Gwen Holdmann pointed out that Alaska has "the highest per capita investment in renewable energy technology of any state."[43] This research is driven, in part, by the overarching vision of reaching our "50 by 2025" goal and a desire to lower the cost of energy for all Alaskans.

One thing is obvious, whether we have a roadmap or not, this is the direction Alaska is moving. But without a plan the process of transformation will take longer and be less efficient.

Conclusion


As Alaska reels from climate change and collapse of the oil markets, now is the time to embrace a 100% renewable energy goal. By make a binding commitment we guarantee a renewable future for Alaska and Alaskans that demands a comprehensive and detailed roadmap. Our economy has nothing to lose from a big push in the growth of renewable energy. Our world-class fishing and forest products industries and rural communities are struggling to understand and keep up with rapidly escalating impacts from climate change,[44],[45],[46],[47] effects caused directly by greenhouse gas emissions entering our oceans and atmosphere. Alaska's mining industry will continue to be needed to supply the raw materials to build a clean energy economy, whenever recovering these from our waste stream is not possible.[48] A renewable plan for Alaska, by itself, would represent no threat to our oil and gas export industry, as the market for that resource is predominately influenced by factors beyond our control. Even Norway, which generates 98% of its electricity from renewables, remains one of the world's largest oil exporters.

Photovoltaic Solar Resource of Alaska and Germany

To fit real numbers to a plan, to identify efficiency potentials, prime renewable energy development and growth potential, and best practice policies and financial incentives, we need to gather state energy specialists, our utilities, and national organizations and experts like Bill Powers and Mark Jacobson together. All Alaskans should be a part of a state level dialogue about our energy future so we can discuss options, get community input, share ideas and benefit from our shared experience. It's good for the environment, good for the economy, and provides Alaskans energy free from the boom and bust cycle of the oil economy.

Eric is a climate activist in Fairbanks, AK
Ceal founded the Alaska Climate & Energy Project. She lives in Eagle River, AK

References:

[1] Geiling, Natasha. (21 Jan 2016) What Will It Take For America To Go 100 Percent Renewable? Climate Progress.
[2] Leidreiter, Anna. (4 Nov 2015) A global shift to 100% renewables is not just cleaner – it's about equality. The Guardian.
[3] City of Vancouver. (Nov 2015) Renewable City Strategy.
[4] Marsik, Tom. (7 Jan 2016) Energy literacy yields extraordinary financial returns while helping the planet. Alaska Dispatch News.
[5] Mitigation Advisory Group. (Aug 2009) Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast and Policy Recommendations Addressing Greenhouse Gas Reduction in Alaska. Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet.
[6] Alaska, 26th Legislature (2009-2010). SB 220: "An Act relating to energy efficiency, energy conservation, and alternative energy..."
[7] Alaska, 26th Legislature (2009-2010). HB 306: "An Act declaring a state energy policy."
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