Imagining a New Future

• What are the biggest challenges for Fairbanks/Alaska in the next 20 years?

Making rapid and sustained progress in all sectors toward net zero GHG emissions,^[1] quickly followed by negative GHG emissions.^[2],[3],[4] is one of the biggest challenges our state will face in the next 20 years. The changes occurring to our marine, terrestrial, and coastal environments (this is where people live^[5]) will have increasingly disruptive consequences to economies and governments. Ocean acidity has increased 30 percent in less than 100 years.^[6] Addressing this will require that we lower our per capita energy use through conservation and efficiency while simultaneously raising our clean energy capacity, in addition to preserving and expanding natural carbon sinks. We need to address power plants, transportation, industry, heating, and agriculture as part of a holistic approach. This transition to a low-carbon society and a diversified, innovative, knowledge-based economy is an exciting opportunity. Developing renewable energy sources, modernizing infrastructure, and creating new businesses and new jobs is a part of the overall effort to reduce regional and state dependence on declining oil revenue.^[7],[8],[9]

• What do you imagine an economically and environmentally sustainable Fairbanks/Alaska to look like?
• What do you see as “Old Alaska” and what do you see as “New Alaska”?

A 100% Renewable Alaska scenario is by no means inevitable - it is entirely contingent upon our ability to confront sunk costs, behavioral inertia, and entrenched interests^[10] in our declining oil economy.^[11],[12]

All sectors of the economy could utilize renewable energy resources^[13] and eliminate dependence on fossil energy sources.^[14] Technological and behavioral choices are capable of making dramatic contributions toward increased energy conservation.^[15] Industry could further improve the efficiency of its operations and the durability and quality of its products. Increased recycling and reduced waste could be stimulated by accounting for the full lifecycle cost of all products. Low cost solar PV could become nearly ubiquitous and seamlessly incorporated into the built environment.^[16] Transportation, whether SAEVs (shared autonomous electric vehicles),^[17],[18] commuter and high speed rail, etc. will likely be fully electric,^[19] with the possible exception of liquid solar fuels^[20],[21] for aviation. All buildings could be net zero^[22] and comply with some version of a performance-based thermal code.
Agriculture could be optimized for food security, crop diversity, and regenerating soil for fertility and carbon sequestration by applying the research of agroecology and related fields. This could benefit the development of local and regional food hubs.^[23] Increased automation may eliminate many current jobs,^[24] which could in turn lead to a reduced work week, work sharing, and a more equitable distribution of productivity gains.^[25] It may also lead to expanding job opportunities in emerging fields. Improvements in medical science and technology will likely continue, and access to health care and education could rise correspondingly.

• What would you like Fairbanks/Alaska to look like in 20 years?
• What specific things need to be built?

By 2036 Fairbanks will have long had a single operator^[26] for the interconnected Railbelt transmission network that will be able to quickly coordinate and dispatch Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)^[27] over a large geography, thereby reducing their variability on the grid. These DERs will comprise the majority of all electric generation, including expanded wind (Alaska has excellent resources) and solar PV (Alaska is comparable to Germany), community wind farms and solar farms, and other renewable energy sources where environmentally appropriate,^[28],[29] and they will be linked with small scale HVDC transmission to our local smart electric grid. Increasingly sophisticated computing power, sensors, and software, aka “Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems” (DERMS), will coordinate these DERs^[30].

By 2036 we will have passed the "50 by 2025" goal set in HB 306, leading to new more ambitious targets, and plans for how to reach them.^[31] Phase 2 of the Fire Island wind farm will be completed, Eva Creek and Delta Wind will be expanded, and new locations developed.^[32] If the 20-fold increase in wind power generation since 2007 holds steady we will have dramatically increased our ability to tap this resource.^[33] Renewable energy projects near population centers will continue to expand, tidal and wave energy will be commercially viable, competing in some markets with already low cost solar PV and wind plus flexible demand and storage^[34] of all kinds^[35] (electric, thermal,^[36] and seasonal). Free site evaluations, package deals, low financing options, and federal tax credits will continue to make it easy for homeowners to "go solar." A statewide energy audit will enable us to dramatically improve energy efficiency in existing buildings and winter air quality in Fairbanks and North Pole. District heating systems using renewable energy to power heat pumps^[37] and/or electric boilers^[38] paired with seasonal thermal energy storage, similar to systems currently in use at Drake Landing Solar Community in Alberta,^[39] will increase.

In laying out a roadmap for clean infrastructure, the research conducted by people such as Bill Powers (BASE 2020), Mark Jacobson (Stanford),^[40] Richard Heinberg (Our Renewable Future),^[41] Sadhu Johnston^[42] (Vancouver's Renewable City Strategy),^[43] Christian Breyer (Finland), Erin Whitney (ACEP solar PV research),^[44] Marc Mueller-Stoffels (Scenarios-based energy planning), and others^[45],[46] will be critical. But the technology is already available to deploy what we need today.

BUILDING THE NEW

• How do we incorporate justice, reconciliation, and equity in our transition/why is this important?
• How do we center our economies locally?

Justice must inform all considerations, and change doesn't occur without disruption.^[47] All efforts to mitigate climate change should be designed to increase quality of life, compensate where losses occur, and invest gains within the community. A lost oil industry job or contract must be compensated with training and opportunities in other fields. According to research published 3/24/2016 in "Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016,"^[48] the amount of money committed to renewables excluding large hydro-electric projects rose to $285.9 billion, more than double that of new coal and gas generation. Transitioning to a clean energy economy could provide Alaska with an entirely new sector providing more high quality jobs than the current oil and gas based economy. Support among labor groups for a new renewables economy is growing fast. Changes in the global market will require Alaskans re-evaluate their choices for their future. Finding our role in a circular global economy will be a challenge, but locally sourced skills and materials should be preferred whenever possible.

• How do we create a popular movement for change in Fairbanks/Alaska?

“The birthright of all living things is health,” wrote organic farming pioneer Sir Albert Howard.^[49] By returning to the common interest we all have in maintaining a healthy environment, the foundation for a prosperous and sustainable society, we can engage everyone. By using blunt science based messaging on the threat of climate change we can educate.^[50] By highlighting that this is a problem we can solve we can encourage action. By identifying the benefits of sustainability and the opportunities it provides for improving our quality of life - economic and food security, new opportunities in business and research, etc. we can engage people in supporting policy solutions.

• Why is it necessary for Alaska to move away from fossil fuels?
• Who needs to get involved and why?

The rapidity of climate change coupled with the environmental pressure exerted by our current global population represents a very real existential threat, one that we have never encountered before.^[51],[52] We must all be a part of the solution. The common threat of climate change has resulted in the formation of synergistic groups. In Alaska, the Native community is on the cutting edge of climate change monitoring (through numerous community monitoring collaborations), mitigation, and, of course, relocation efforts for communities threatened by erosion and flooding. The fishing industry is jeopardized by ocean acidification and hydrologic cycle disruptions. In just one example of collaboration, state and federal scientists, agencies, tribes, conservation, fishing and aquaculture groups formed the Alaska Ocean Acidification Network in order to share their findings and connect with concerned coastal residents.^[53] Those of us who are clearly threatened can share how we are impacted. Those of us who already understand the need for action can increase our public visibility and advocacy to address climate change. We need legislators and government agencies who will advance polices based on the evidence in local, state, and national levels of government. We need all legislators and candidates seeking public office to acknowledge the well understood science of climate change, the impacts we are currently experiencing, and those we can expect in the future.

• What needs to change structurally?

Planetary boundaries define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth system.^[54] These boundaries must be acknowledged in all policy and investment decisions, and such decisions must be approached holistically, across all sectors. Doing so is difficult, but by incorporating the social and environmental cost of carbon into the economy with policies like carbon fee and dividend,^[55] it can be virtually automatic.^[56] The lack of this carbon pricing has been called by Lord Stern the "biggest market failure."^[57] Internalizing that cost could stimulate technological changes that create a shift in consumer behaviors to less material throughput and more information and services.

We can adopt or expand renewable portfolio standards, clean energy funds, feed-in tariffs, net metering, and power purchase agreements^[58] for renewable resources. We can require oil and coal industries operating in Alaska to comply with the Clean Power Plan. Today, the Renewable Energy Grant Fund and Emerging Energy Technology Fund both need full state support and the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet needs to re-establish its role in the preparation and implementation of an Alaska climate change strategy.^[59]

• What's already happening in Fairbanks/Alaska that we need to support?

We have a growing climate movement that has benefited from the coordination of groups across the state. We are sharing information and shaping policy. There is an Alaska Climate Caucus, several chapters of Citizen's Climate Lobby, numerous grassroots environmental organizations,^[60] renewable energy organizations, and world class research conducted at the Alaska Center for Energy and Power and the Cold Climate Housing Research Center. Research institutes, university departments, and scientists in Alaska are contributing to the global understanding of climate change. There are local businesses in the renewable energy industry, bike sharing, community-supported agriculture, and farmer's markets, etc. Many cities, including Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau have begun to take action and create individualized plans to address climate change. In 2007 a resolution was passed in Fairbanks committing to a process of identifying risks and opportunities related to climate change and developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a result, the Interior Issues Council's task force on climate change released a 77-page final report on 1/10/2010 that contains lots of ideas for local action.

• What are Alaskan values and how do we act on them?
• What do you think we will gain from a transition?

As a nation, we address issues of national security, economic security, and food security. People want to live free from the threat of war, poverty, and malnutrition. Climate change is a security issue; as a threat multiplier^[61] it makes all these more likely. We can prevent the breaching of planetary boundaries. We can begin to reverse the dangerous trends the IPCC and numerous other organizations are warning us will occur if we do not take action. A transition to an economically and environmentally sustainable Fairbanks and Alaska will provide a secure future for ourselves, our community, and future generations. It means lower mortality rates as a result of a variety of pollution related illnesses, and the preservation of countless species in healthy marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

YOU

• Why do you personally feel a need to work toward transition?

There is a clear disjunction between what we need to do (maintain the conditions for life) and what we actually are doing on Earth (radically altering the ecosphere). The results of inaction to address this are clear and consequential. If economic inequality^[62] is important, then how much more so life itself? We are redrawing the face of the planet. Given what we know, we must respond accordingly, and we must respond today. There are no good reasons why our energy can’t be clean.

• Tell us a story about a time when you realized the need for change in Alaska’s course in history

In September 2014 the power of collective action and the urgency^[63] of climate change merged. The People's Climate March drew many people into the climate movement who may have formerly only watched from the sidelines. No longer merely an environmental concern, it became linked to issues of social justice - about our future as a society and the values we hold as people, including maintaining the integrity our global community. (How many species are expendable?) The light of climate science illuminated this threat more clearly to me than anything else. People across the country^[64] and the world simultaneously called for action and marched through their city streets. It was the largest demonstration in New York City since the 1982 anti-nuclear protest. The combination of engaged collective action and the understanding that it is entirely preventable continues to give me hope.

ALASKA’S GLOBAL ROLE

• What is Fairbanks/Alaska’s role in fighting climate change?

Alaska has a relatively low population density, and the boreal forest, temperate rainforest, tundra, and ocean ecosystems are important carbon sinks. Maintaining the health of these ecosystems, even as we see them already changing under the effects of a warming climate, will continue to be important in restoring the global carbon balance.^[65] Alaska is also leading in the development of clean energy technology for northern latitudes, and we can maintain our leadership well into the future.

• How can Fairbanks/Alaska be an example and inspiration for the rest of the world?

We are already an inspiration. Kodiak is now 99.7 percent renewably powered by wind and hydro, and many other isolated microgrids in Alaska have very high percentages as well. If we continue to expand renewables, follow the example of several neighbors (Finland, Ontario,^[66] Vancouver, etc.),^[67] and draft and/or renew our own climate change action plans and renewable city strategies, we will continue to lead on an issue that affects our state more than any other.

Eric Schaetzle is a climate activist in Fairbanks, AK
Questions provided by Kengo Nagaoka and Tristan Glowa, community organizing fellows with the Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition

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